Short-term traffic flow forecasting with spatial-temporal correlation in a hybrid deep learning framework

Deep learning approaches have reached a celebrity status in artificial intelligence field, its success have mostly relied on Convolutional Networks (CNN) and Recurrent Networks. By exploiting fundamental spatial properties of images and videos, the CNN always achieves dominant performance on visual tasks. And the Recurrent Networks (RNN) especially long short-term memory methods (LSTM) can successfully characterize the temporal correlation, thus exhibits superior capability for time series tasks. Traffic flow data have plentiful characteristics on both time and space domain. However, applications of CNN and LSTM approaches on traffic flow are limited. In this paper, we propose a novel deep architecture combined CNN and LSTM to forecast future traffic flow (CLTFP). An 1-dimension CNN is exploited to capture spatial features of traffic flow, and two LSTMs are utilized to mine the short-term variability and periodicities of traffic flow. Given those meaningful features, the feature-level fusion is performed to achieve short-term traffic flow forecasting. The proposed CLTFP is compared with other popular forecasting methods on an open datasets. Experimental results indicate that the CLTFP has considerable advantages in traffic flow forecasting. in additional, the proposed CLTFP is analyzed from the view of Granger Causality, and several interesting properties of traffic flow and CLTFP are discovered and discussed . Traffic flow forecasting, Convolutional neural network, Long short-term memory, Feature-level fusion